Growth Forecasts

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Population Trends and Projections

Housing Unit Projections

Housing Unit Projections Based on Recent Building Permit Activity

Residential Land Use Acreage Needs

Commercial Land Use Acreage Needs

Based on historic and current trends, projections can be built regarding population and housing units. The projections are used to estimate growth rates and land demand projections in the town, and how the land use plan can best accommodate anticipated residential and commercial growth.

Population Trends and Projections

Wisconsin Department of Administration (WDOA) Projections

In 1993 the Wisconsin Department of Administration’s (WDOA) Demographic Services Center prepared baseline population projections to the year 2015 for communities and counties of the state. The WDOA utilized a projection formula that calculated the annual numerical population change (yearly population estimates), and which estimated extended community population projections.

The projections prepared by the WDOA are presented in Figure 10-1. The WDOA projections predict Presque Isle’s population will remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 532 people through the year 2015.

Population Trends and Projections
Figure 10-2 presents a comparison of the projected percent change in population from the 1998 population estimate to the 2015 population projection for the towns of Presque Isle and Winchester, Vilas County, and the State of Wisconsin.

Comparative Population Projections

The comparison of the population projections from 1998 to 2015 presents some interesting information for the planning area. Presque Isle’s population is projected to remain rather stable throughout the planning period, while the town of Winchester and Vilas County are both projected to experience population declines of approximately 5%. However, the actual population change for Presque Isle through 2015, as well as for other areas within Vilas County, will likely be different than the projection. While the projections by the WDOA are based on sophisticated modeling using population trends and economic conditions, the attractiveness of the area for year-round recreational opportunities, and the ability of commerce and freedom of location afforded through the internet will likely contradict these projections. The town can expect, as the regional trends have identified, that many of the seasonal/recreational homes will be converted to year-round retirement homes while new families continue to discover the abundance of recreational opportunities and natural beauty in the area.

Population Projections Based on Recent Building Permit Data

A comparative method of projecting population growth (1990 to 2015) is based on building permit activity trends. Presque Isle’s 9-year average of 21 additional housing units was used to calculate the straight-line housing projection from 1990 to 2015. The population projections were derived by using the projected number of total housing units bases on the nine year permit trend and calculating the total number of occupied units, which was 18.9% in 1990 for the Town of Presque Isle. The number of occupied units are then multiplied by the projected number of persons per household to establish the projected population. The results of these calculations is presented in Table 10-1 and compared to the WDOA forecast.

Table 10-1

Population Projections Based on Building Permit Activity Data

Town of Presque Isle

1990-2015

 

1990

1998

2000

2005

2010

2015

Total Housing Units

1,123

1,287

1,325

1,420

1,515

1,610

Occupied Units (18.9% of total units)

212

243

250

268

286

304

Persons Per Household

2.22

2.19

2.11

2.03

1.94

1.87

Total Population

471

532

530

547

557

571

Source: 1990 U.S. Census Data; WDOA Wisconsin Household Projections by Household Types 1990-2015, whereby the increments used to obtain the projected number of persons per household for the Town of Presque Isle were based on Vilas County’s projection increments; Vilas County Zoning Office, Building Statistics, 1980-1998; Foth & Van Dyke, 1998.

Based on the derived projection presented in Table 10-1, the Town of Presque Isle is projected to increase by 39 people between 1998 and 2015, from an estimated 532 persons to 571 persons, respectively. This is a 7.3% increase over the 17 year period.

Comparative Population Projections

For comparison purposes, Figure 10-3 presents the WDOA population projections and the derived population projection based on the building permit activity trend. The figure depicts the differences between projections which should be used as parameters for the actual population growth in Presque Isle by 2015.

Comparative Population Projections PI

Summary of Population Projections

The population projections calculated by the WDOA, and those derived by Foth & Van Dyke based on building permit activity, create a range which the Town of Presque Isle can use as a guide for future development needs and services. The WDOA population projection for Presque isle projects the town’s population will remain relatively stable, fluctuating around 532 persons between the 1998 estimate and the year 2015, while Foth & Van Dyke’s building permit-based projection anticipates a 7.34% increase over the same planning period. This comparative trend analysis creates a range for which to plan from the population remaining stable to an increase of up to 39 persons between the two projections.

In comparison, during the nine year period from 1990 through 1998, the town’s population increased by 61 persons, representing a growth rate of 13%. It is likely that the town’s population will continue to increase throughout the planning period similar to that projected based on building permit activity trends.

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Housing Unit Projections

In conjunction with population projections, housing units projections are calculated to determine future land use needs and acreage demands as well as future demands on the town’s public facilities and services. To begin the housing unit projections, a review of the average Presque Isle household size was completed relative to change in the projected persons per household. As presented in Table 10-2, the number of persons per occupied housing unit is projected to decline between the year 1990 and 2015 for the Town of Presque Isle, as well as throughout the county and state.

Table 10-2

Projected Persons Per Household

Town of Presque Isle, Vilas County and Wisconsin

1990 - 2015

Year

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Town of Presque Isle

2.22

2.2

2.12

2.04

1.95

1.88

Vilas County

2.4

2.38

2.3

2.22

2.13

2.06

State of Wisconsin

2.61

2.59

2.55

2.51

2.46

2.41

Source: Department of Administration, Division of Energy and Demographic Services, Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Household Projections by Household Type 1990-2015, December 1993; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, STF3A.

Note: The increments used to obtain the projected household size for the Town of Presque Isle were taken from Vilas County's projection increments according to the Demographic Services Center.

Housing Unit Projections Based on WDOA Data

Housing unit projections are an important element to understanding potential land demands. Specifically, the projections are used to allocate required acreage to accommodate the expected increase in residential development, and to some degree the commercial development need, throughout the planning period.

The projections in Table 10-3 are based on the number of year-round housing units, which includes all occupied units and vacant units which are either for sale, for rent, or rented or sold but not yet occupied. It does not include vacant units which are used for seasonal, recreational, occasional, or other use. The projections for seasonal housing units are presented following the year-round housing unit projections. Table 10-3 provides the total year-round WDOA housing unit projections for the Town of Presque Isle.

Table 10-3

Projected Number of Year Round Housing Units

Town of Presque Isle

1990-2015

Characteristics

1990

1998

2000

2005

2010

2015

Population

471

532

539

544

541

532

Person Per Household

2.22

2.19

2.11

2.03

1.94

1.87

Occupied Units (@88.7%)

212

243

254

267

277

283

Vacant Year Round Units (@11.3%)

27

31

32

34

35

36

Total Year Round Units

239

274

286

301

312

319

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, STF1A; WDOA Demographic Service Center, Official Municipal Population Projections 1990-2015.

Note: The increments used to obtain the projected household size for the Town of Presque Isle were taken from Vilas County’s projection increments according to the Demographic Services Center.

The important information presented in this projection table is the projected addition of 45 year-round housing units between the estimated number of year-round housing units in the town in 1998 and the year 2015, representing a 16.4% increase overall.

Projected Seasonal and Recreational Housing Growth

Utilizing the year-round housing unit projections for the Town of Presque Isle from 1998 to 2015, projections for the number of seasonal housing units were calculated for the same period. These projections are presented in Table 10-4.

Table 10-4

Projected Number of Seasonal Housing Units

Town of Presque Isle

1990-2015

Housing Units

1990

1998

2000

2005

2010

2015

Year Round Units (@21.3%)

239

274

286

301

312

319

Occupied Units

212

243

254

267

277

283

Vacant Year Round Units

27

31

32

34

35

36

Seasonal Units (@78.7%)

884

1,013

1,061

1,113

1,158

1,181

Total Housing Units

1,123

1,287

1,347

1,414

1,470

1,500

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, STF1A; WDOA Demographic Service Center, Official Municipal Population Projections 1990-2015.

Note: Projections based on actual 1990 census data where occupied units accounted for 18.9 %, vacant year round 2.4 %, and vacant other 78.7 % of the total housing units in the Town of Presque Isle.

Similar to the year-round housing unit projections, seasonal housing units are projected to increase by 16.6% for an additional 168 units by the year 2015. Overall, Presque Isle can expect the total number of housing units to climb from an estimated 1,287 units in 1998 to 1,500 total housing units in 2015 based on the WDOA information. This projection indicates the town will experience significantly less growth through the planning period than was experienced more recently between 1990 and 1998 whereby an estimated 164 units were added in the town, resulting in a 14.6% increase in housing units during a nine year time period, as opposed to the 19 year planning period. These projections are presented graphically in Figure 10-4.

Projected Housing Units

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Housing Unit Projections Based on Recent Building Permit Activity

An additional measure that assists in the illustration of the growth in residential housing units for the Town of Presque Isle is analysis of building permit activity. Table 9-4, shown previously in Section 9, displays the building permit activity from 1980 to 1998 which includes single-family units, multi-family units, and mobile homes or trailers. The 19-year average of 19 building permits annually for Presque Isle was used to calculate the projected number of housing units in the town from 1998 to 2015.

Using this method of projecting the number of housing units, the number of housing units in Presque Isle is projected to reach 1,610 by 2015, which is 110 more units than the projections based on the WDOA data.

Comparative Housing Projections

Figure 10-5 illustrates both the WDOA housing unit projections and the projection prepared based on recent building permit activity data, simultaneously.

Comparative Housing Unit Projections PI

The WDOA and building permit projections were then divided into the different types of housing units, including: single-family units, multi-family units, and other units. This division of the total housing unit projections by housing types uses the 1990 percentages of housing types provided in the 1990 Census of Population and Housing for the Town of Presque Isle.

Table 10-5

Projected Housing Units by Type

Town of Presque Isle

1990 - 2015

 

 

WDOA

Building Permits

Type of Housing Units

1990

1998

2000

2005

2010

2015

1998

2000

2005

2010

2015

Single Family* (92.4%)

1,038

1,189

1,245

1,306

1,358

1,386

1,189

1,224

1,312

1,400

1,488

Multi-Family (2.1%)

23

27

28

30

31

31

27

28

30

32

34

Other** (5.5%)

62

71

74

78

81

3

71

73

8

83

88

Total Units

1,123

1,287

1,347

1,414

1,470

1,500

1,287

1,325

1,420

1,515

1,610

*Single family includes attached units, detached units, and mobile homes or trailers.

**Other housing units refers to living quarters that are occupied, or could be occupied, which do not fall into any of the other categories. Examples include houseboats, railroad cars, campers, vans, etc.

Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing 1990, STF 1 Table H41; Foth & Van Dyke housing unit projections calculated from Wisconsin Department of Administration population data.

The projection of total housing units by type of housing assumes the 1990 percent of housing units by type will remain the same until 2015. Single-family units account for the largest share of housing units with 92.4% of all housing units.

Summary of Housing Unit Projections

The housing unit projections prepared using building permit trends from 1990 to 1998 are somewhat similar to the projections prepared utilizing WDOA data, with the primary contrast occurring in the year 2015. Utilizing the building permit activity trends, it is projected that Presque Isle will have 1,610 total housing units by the year 2015, an increase of 323 units (25.1%) from the estimated number of housing units in the town in 1998 (1,287). The WDOA projects the town will have 1,500 housing units, an increase of 213 housing units (16.6%) over the same planning period. The projections vary by 110 housing units.

The U.S. Census Bureau indicates that there were 1,123 housing units in Presque Isle in 1990. However, between 1991 and 1998 there were 164 building permits issued for residential development in the town, resulting in an estimated 1,287 housing units in Presque Isle in 1998. This indicates that both projection scenarios appear to be on track, however ultimately, it is likely that the projected number of housing units for the town will be closer to a number which falls between the two projection scenarios.

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Residential Land Use Acreage Needs

Projections of future land use types are a fundamental element in the development of the Preferred Land Use Map. To achieve "managed growth", demands for acreage to accommodate different land use types must be forecasted and ultimately located on the Year 2020 Preferred Land Use Map.

In the Town of Presque Isle, adequate acreage for planned residential is required to accommodate foreseeable needs and react to anticipated demands.

To accomplish this task, housing unit projections were utilized to develop Table 10-6. The table compares anticipated residential acreage demands based on WDOA and building permit projections. The comparison timeline covers a 17 year period from 1998-2015, and is based on the composition of 100% single family units, which includes mobile homes (As a percentage of land use, single family residential occupies 99.7% of the existing residential land use in the town). The densities of the unit projections were based on input from the Town of Presque Isle Year 2020 Comprehensive Land Use Plan Steering Committee and assumptions relative to the location of the anticipated development. The building permit forecast was based on the average number of residential housing units (19 new units) that were permitted annually in the Town of Presque Isle over the last 19 years (1980-1998). The WDOA projection was based on official census projections.

Table 10-6

Residential Acreage Projections 1998-2015

 


 

WDOA

Building Permit

Parcel Size

Estimated % of Developments

Potential Dwelling Units

Acreagr Requirements

Potential Dwelling Units

Acreage Requirements

10 acres or more

100%

21.0

210.0

32.0

320.0

5.0 acres

10%

21.0

105.0

32.0

160.0

2.5 acres

30%

64.0

160.0

97.0

242.5

1.5 acres

30%

64.0

96.0

97.0

145.5

1.0 acre or less

20%

43.0

43.0

65.0

65.0

Total

100%

213.0

614.0

323.0

933.0

Source: WDOA U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population and Housing, STF1A; WDOA Demographic Service Center, Official Municipal Housing Unit Projections 1990-2015. Foth & Van Dyke Estimates & Projections

* Required units 1990-2015.

Based on Table 10-6, the Town of Presque Isle could see a residential acreage need range of between 614 acres and 933 acres from 1998-2015. The acreage associated with residential need is based on assumptions of continued growth and development occurring in accordance with the percentages allocated in Table 10-6. It is likely that the projected number of housing units for the town will be closer to a number which falls between the two projection scenarios, therefore the same goes for the acreage need to accommodate future residential housing.

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Commercial Land Use Acreage Needs

Given the Town of Presque Isle's high seasonal residential and relatively low commercial base in the town, commercial need can be difficult to forecast. To that end, the Town of Presque Isle Land Use Plan used two different alternatives to forecast commercial acreage need. The first option calculated a percentage of commercial land use to total land use to develop a commercial (business) development ratio. The development ratio option anticipates a direct relationship to service demands and population levels. The second option for forecasting commercial land demand projections consisted of analyzing the average number of commercial building permits issued over the last 19 years (1980-1998). The average number of permits were straight-line forecasted throughout 2015, with each permit attributed a land acreage to calculate demands and potential property conversions to commercial use.

Table 10-7

Commercial Acreage Projections

Option 1: Acreage - Population Ratio1

 

 

WDOA Population Projection

Building Permit Population Projection

Existing Commercial2 Acreage - 1998

Existing Population 1998

Projected Commercial Acreage 2015

Projected Population 2015

Projected Commercial Acreage 2015

Projected Population 2015

158.4

532

158.4 (+0)

532

170 (+11.6)

571

1Ratio = Acreage divided by population.

2Includes home based business.

Option 2: Commercial Permit Forecast

Total Commercial Building Permits 1980-1998

Potential Commercial Building Permits 1999-2015

Acreage Required
2.0 Ac/Permit

8

7

14

The acreage-population ratio (Option 1) anticipates that commercial acreage will remain stable at 158.4 acres based on the WDOA population forecast. In converse, up to 11.6 acres of commercial may be needed if the population increases in accord with Table 10-1. Option 2, based on commercial permits, anticipates 14 acres of commercial land may be needed if future permit activity mirrors past volume.


The plan acknowledges, based on the existing percentages, continued business growth in Presque Isle most likely will be home-based businesses, followed by service related business. The town's rural location and low permanent population typically precludes major commercial uses.

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